Stat show Arsenal can’t lose the league from here, but are the stats deceiving?
Yesterday, Arsenal defeated Leeds United 4-1 to retain their position at the top of the Premier League standings and potentially achieve a crucial milestone.
The Gunners have now surpassed 70 points, which is noteworthy because no team with over 70 points at this point in the season has ever failed to win the title.
Arsenal currently have 72 points, eight points ahead of reigning champions Manchester City, who have a game in hand and recently beat Liverpool 4-1 without their top scorer Erling Haaland, who was injured.
Despite Arsenal’s strong position, some believe that Manchester City are the favorites due to their depth and experience in winning a title, but the aforementioned statistic suggests that we may be underestimating Mikel Arteta’s team.
All teams with more than 70 points after 29 games of a Premier League season have gone on to win the title:
82 Liverpool 19/20
78 Man City 17/18
75 Chelsea 05/06
74 Chelsea 04/05
74 Man Utd 12/13
73 Arsenal 03/04
72 Man Utd 06/07
71 Man City 18/19— Orbinho (@Orbinho) April 2, 2023
Upon further examination, we discovered another crucial aspect to consider – the gap between the first and second-placed teams after 29 matches.
If Manchester City win their game in hand, Arsenal’s lead at the top could be reduced to only five points. This is not as secure a margin as most previous champions have had at this stage of the season.
82 Liverpool 19/20 – 25 points clear
78 Man City 17/18 – 18 points clear
75 Chelsea 05/06 – 8 points clear
74 Chelsea 04/05 – 11 points clear
74 Man Utd 12/13 – 10 points clear
73 Arsenal 03/04 – 9 points clear
72 Man Utd 06/07 – 6 points clear
71 Man City 18/19 – 1 point clear
The Premier League title races in the 2019/20 and 2017/18 seasons were dominated by Liverpool and Manchester City respectively, with both teams securing comfortable leads at the top of the table.
Therefore, it would not be appropriate to draw comparisons between those seasons and the current one, which appears to be a closely contested battle between two top teams. Arsenal cannot afford to relax and must maintain their focus until the end of the season.
The current season is more akin to Manchester United’s triumph in the 2006/07 season. It was their first title win in a while and was powered by a new generation of talented young players such as Cristiano Ronaldo and Wayne Rooney, who faced off against Jose Mourinho’s more experienced team of serial winners at Chelsea.
Indeed, one significant difference is that Manchester United in 2006/07 were led by the legendary Sir Alex Ferguson and had won the title just four years prior, whereas Arsenal’s current title drought has lasted 19 years.
While every title race is unique, the statistics suggest that Arsenal have reasons to be optimistic about their chances.
Stat show Arsenal can’t lose the league from here, but are the stats deceiving?