HomeTop NewsSupercomputer predicts 2023/24 Premier League table after Arsenal beat Man City

Supercomputer predicts 2023/24 Premier League table after Arsenal beat Man City

Supercomputer predicts 2023/24 Premier League table after Arsenal beat Man City

Mikel Arteta was eager to minimize the importance of Arsenal’s encounter with Manchester City during the intense title race last season.

The Basque coach was unlikely to become overly excited about a match taking place in October.

“It would be a big boost for energy and confidence-wise,” Arteta conceded on the eve of City’s trip to the Emirates Stadium on Sunday. “Aside from that and three points, nothing else.”

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However, the clashes between the top two teams from the previous season undeniably played a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the 2022/23 title race. Manchester City emerged victorious in both of these encounters, earning an additional six points compared to Arsenal from those matches alone. As a result, they concluded the season with a five-point lead over the Gunners.

On Sunday afternoon, Arsenal finally put an end to a frustrating streak of 12 consecutive Premier League losses to Manchester City, securing a crucial victory that propelled them two points ahead of the reigning champions.

This significant triumph has had a notable impact on Opta’s predictions for the final league standings, providing a valid reason for Arteta to exercise caution and not let excitement take over.

RankTeamProbability of finishing in position
1.Man City80.8%
2.Liverpool42.3%
3.Arsenal30.7%
4.Tottenham23.8%
5.Newcastle21.0%
6.Aston Villa18.4%
7.Brighton18.6%
8.West Ham17.8%
9.Man Utd19.4%
10.Crystal Palace16.7%
11.Chelsea17.0%
12.Brentford16.4%
13.Fulham17.3%
14.Wolves17.5%
15.Nottingham Forest18.2%
16.Everton18.9%
17.Burnley19.4%
18.Bournemouth21.3%
19.Luton26.0%
20.Sheffield United42.7%

Data via Opta, correct as of 8 October 2023.

Despite suffering back-to-back Premier League losses for the first time since 2018, Manchester City are still heavily favored to retain their top-flight title. Nevertheless, their defeat at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday did deal a blow to their championship aspirations.

Heading into the weekend, City had an 86% probability of winning their fourth consecutive Premier League title. This percentage has now dropped to 80.8%. While the weekend’s victors, Arsenal, have improved their chances, they are still considered outsiders, with only a 5.5% likelihood of ending their two-decade-long wait for the top-flight title (up from 3.4% before the weekend).

Pep Guardiola, when acknowledging Arsenal as City’s primary title rival this season, also mentioned Liverpool as a team to watch. Opta’s supercomputer seems to concur.

Before Arsenal faced City, Liverpool played an exciting 2-2 draw against Brighton on the south coast. The Reds had previously suffered two defeats at the Amex Stadium but managed to rally from behind after a well-executed goal by Simon Adingra, thanks to Mohamed Salah’s brace. However, a late goal by Lewis Dunk resulted in a shared point in a frenzied match.

Liverpool’s two points dropped have left Jurgen Klopp’s team in fourth place in the current table, reducing their chances of securing the top spot in May to just 12%.

Tottenham Hotspur currently lead the league, edging ahead of their north London rivals on goal difference. Ange Postecoglou has encouraged Spurs fans to dream, but when looking at the statistics, the prospects for a title win don’t offer much room for fantasy. Spurs have just a slim 0.9% chance of clinching their first top-flight title in over six decades.

Newcastle United, the team that knocked Paris Saint-Germain out of the Champions League, have been given an even smaller 0.4% likelihood of finishing in first place. Similar to Liverpool, the Magpies had a rollercoaster Sunday afternoon, briefly falling behind before drawing 2-2 with West Ham United.

West Ham United and Brighton both have a minimal 0.1% chance of winning the title this season. Aston Villa, despite a 1-1 draw with Wolverhampton Wanderers on Sunday, is the only other Premier League club with a non-zero probability of finishing first.

As for Manchester United and Chelsea, along with Sheffield United and Luton Town, Opta’s predictions suggest that any hopes of claiming the top spot in May can be set aside.

Supercomputer predicts 2023/24 Premier League table after Arsenal beat Man City

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